Author: Katrina Romatowski, CEO and Founder of reSpace
When Seeking Alpha recently published “The Coming Baby Boomer Bust,” its thesis grabbed attention: Baby Boomers own half of U.S. housing wealth, they’re aging fast, and as they pass on, their homes will flood the market, dragging down values and straining the economy.
On the surface, that argument makes sense. Boomers do hold nearly $17 trillion in home equity and control 37% of the housing stock, 57% of vacation homes, and 58% of rental properties. As over 10,000 retire each day and four pass away every minute, a historic wealth transfer is inevitable. More homes will come to market. More supply, the theory goes, means falling prices.
But here’s the tension: the future of housing cannot be explained by one demographic fact. To understand what’s really happening, we have to hold multiple truths in view at once.
Truth #1: The U.S. is Growing, Not Shrinking
Unlike China, which is projected to lose nearly half its population over the coming century, the United States is set to grow from 324 million in 2017 to nearly 390 million by 2050.
That growth locks in demand. It means more households, more pressure on supply, and more need for accessible pathways to ownership.
Calling this a “bust” assumes demand will fall off a cliff. But the numbers say otherwise. America is not Japan in the 1990s. It is not China in the 2030s. It is a country adding millions of people, year after year.
Truth #2: We Are Already Millions of Homes Short
By 2023, the U.S. was already 4.9 million homes short, according to Brookings. That is not a gap we have been closing—it is one we have been widening.
Even if every Baby Boomer home that hits the market over the next decade were perfectly suited for the next generation, we would still be millions of units behind. And the hard reality is that much of that Boomer housing stock is in the wrong places, in the wrong form, or priced out of reach for the very buyers who need it.
Truth #3: Builders Are Retreating
You might think the private market is racing to catch up. But it is not. NPR recently reported that homebuilders are pulling back on new projects amid tariffs, high costs, and economic uncertainty.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce calls our shortage “severe,” and yet the very builders who could help close the gap are pumping the brakes. Without new supply, the shortage hardens into crisis.
Truth #4: The Boomer Wealth Transfer Is Real but Misunderstood
Yes, Boomers will pass on trillions in wealth, much of it in housing. But here’s what gets overlooked: generational transfer does not guarantee generational access.
Many heirs already own homes, meaning inherited properties are often sold.
Others inherit homes in locations far from where they live and work, which also pushes inventory onto the open market.
So yes, there will be turnover. But turnover does not equal accessibility. A home in rural Kansas does not help a renter in Seattle. A vacation property in Florida does not solve the crisis for a teacher in Denver.
The Real Risk: Too Few of the Right Kinds of Homes
When you put all of these truths together, the picture becomes clear:
The U.S. population is growing, not shrinking.
We were already 4.9 million homes behind in 2023, and the gap has widened since.
Builders are retreating, not advancing.
Boomer homes will come to market, but they will not solve the mismatch of affordability, location, and lifestyle.
The real risk is not too many homes. It is too few of the right kinds of homes in the places people actually need them.
📊 By the Numbers
4.9 million homes short in 2023 (Brookings)—and the gap has widened since.
10,000 Baby Boomers retire every day.
4 Baby Boomers pass away every minute.
$17 trillion in home equity held by Boomers, much of it set to transfer in coming years.
390 million projected U.S. population by 2050, up from 324 million in 2017.
$2,395 – the average monthly rent for a newer one-bedroom in Seattle today.
A Realignment, Not a Bust
That is why the next chapter of U.S. housing is not a “bust,” but a realignment.
Housing values will not collapse under the weight of Boomer inventory. Instead, we will see an affordability chokehold: demand intensifies, supply lags, and the traditional pathways into ownership remain blocked for millions of would-be buyers.
This is the housing paradox of our time: a growing population, trillions in housing wealth, millions of homes passing between generations—and still, less access.
The Missed Opportunity and the New American Dream
Here is the opportunity hidden inside the so-called “bust”: millions of Americans are already paying around $1,790 a month, the current national median asking rent. What they lack is not income, but access.
If the Baby Boomer “Silver Tsunami” is the storm, then innovative models like co-homeownership are the levees. By lowering the entry point to the cost of first, last, and deposit—what people already pay to rent—we can open the gates to ownership.
This is not just about affordability. It is about dignity. About shifting from being perpetual tenants in someone else’s future to becoming co-authors of your own.
Final Word: A Crisis of Imagination
The Baby Boomer Bust is a narrow lens. The bigger story is this: America does not face a collapse of value. It faces a crisis of imagination.
And the solution is already here—if we are willing to build it.
Live Large. Pay Small.
